Autumn internationals 2024: England vs South Africa analysis and score prediction
Meeting for the first time since a heart-breaking defeat by one point in the 2023 World Cup semi-final, England will be aiming to redeem themselves and put the Springboks to bed with a home victory at Twickenham on Saturday evening.
Here, Sports News Blitz’s Barnaby van Hoeken looks at England's recent battles with South Africa and identifies three things Steve Borthwick’s men need to do to emerge victorious.
Recent history
It was only a year ago Handre Pollard kicked over a last-minute penalty to snatch the win and break England hearts, as South Africa went on to win the Webb Ellis Cup for a fourth time, the most in the competition's history.
The Red Roses were on top for large parts of the game, kicking for goal often which capitalised on a faltering South African defence that continued to concede penalties.
Whilst Rasie Erasmus’ substitutions were arguably the factor that turned the tide of the game, it was substitute RG Snyman’s try in the 69th minute that shifted momentum to the Boks.
In 2022, England hosted South Africa in the Autumn Internationals, an affair not as close as a year later.
England looked fairly unimpressive all game until a South African red card revived English energy and led to Henry Slade scoring a try with 10 minutes to go.
However, it was too little, too late.
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England fans will have to flip the calendar all the way back to November 2021 to see a victory over South Africa.
A game in which England came flying out the block thanks to early tries from Manu Tuilagi and Freddie Steward respectively, South Africa took a pragmatic approach to the game to regain the lead at various points.
The lead kept changing hands throughout but this time it was England’s turn to inflict last-minute heartbreak, thanks to an 80th-minute penalty from Marcus Smith.
From these three games, it has been clear to see South Africa’s approach of physical and mental domination is what made them the victors twice and narrow losers once.
These factors coupled with player quality and Erasmus’ tactical set-up and reading of match situations has made them back-to-back world champions, again, beating England in the 2019 Rugby World Cup final.
If the Red Roses want any chance of a win over the Springboks, they must focus on implementing these three things.
Points through the posts
International rugby is a game of fine margins, especially when playing the best team in the world.
In order to win, England will have to take points when they're on the table, with Marcus Smith proving to be ever reliable off the tee this autumn.
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Reactionary substitutions, not pre-planned
England have lost both their games this autumn, albeit by the narrowest of margins.
In both games, George Ford came on at fly-half in the 65th minute to use his experience to close out the games. Both times have failed.
Missing a crucial try-saving tackle aiming to wrap too high and not around the legs led to Mark Telea scoring the All Blacks’ winning try.
Ford had a chance at redemption, which he subsequently squandered with a missed penalty kick from far out, as the game finished 22-24.
A week later, Smith - who was arguably man of the match in both games - moved from fly-half to full-back to accommodate Ford, who proceeded to have little impact.
Both times, the substitutions were pre-planned. Steve Borthwick must go with the flow of the game and not move the best playing players from the pitch or out of position.
Defence wins games
England’s blitz defence has looked impressive so far this autumn despite two losses.
Employing a blitz defence tires teams quicker due to the nature of demanding players to fly up from the line to meet the opposition.
England have shut many attacks down in both games but still conceded too many opportunities for their opposition to score.
Linked to point two, Borthwick must identify when his players are too tired to continue and call the substitutions and keep the high intensity.
England’s defence is what can stop the Springboks' domination.
Summary
Despite all this, with England only winning two of their last eight games and South Africa losing only two games all year, it is hard not to predict a dominant Springbok victory.
Score prediction: England 15 South Africa 31
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