Brighton vs Chelsea: Five key battles and score prediction for Premier League clash

After knocking them out of the FA Cup fourth round, Brighton again host Chelsea on Friday, February 14, in the Premier League.

The two sides met on Saturday, February 8 at the Amex Stadium, where Brighton beat the Blues 2-1 thanks to goals from Georginio Rutter and Kaoru Mitoma.

Following a 4-2 league win for Chelsea in September, it’s one apiece between head coaches Enzo Maresca and Fabian Hurzeler.

While Chelsea hope to cling on to that crucial fourth spot in their bid for Champions League qualification, Brighton will be looking to do the double over the Blues and re-enter the tight race for European football next season.

Sports News Blitz’s resident Chelsea expert Henry Eccles analyses five key battles and gives his score prediction for the Premier League match.

Nicolas Jackson vs Adam Webster

He may be experiencing a goal drought at the moment, but Nicolas Jackson is a crucial player for Chelsea.

That much was made clear after Christopher Nkunku’s poor performance in the cup tie on Saturday.

In 90 minutes, the former Leipzig star had only 34 touches of the ball, 20 fewer than keeper Robert Sanchez, and failed to register a single shot on goal.

Nkunku, who Maresca admits is not a natural no.9, was constantly dropping deep to receive the ball rather than stretching Brighton’s defence, something Jackson excels at.

After the match, Maresca spoke about Jackson’s omission:

“Sometimes I think you need to play some games without players to realise how important they are.

“Off the ball, his pressing is always very good and on the ball he is a threat always.”

Jackson missed the match on Saturday due to injury but is expected to be available for the Premier League clash on Friday.

Assuming the Senegal international starts, he could be up against Adam Webster if the injury Lewis Dunk sustained in the FA Cup rules the Brighton captain out.

It was Webster’s mistake in September’s reverse fixture that led to Jackson teeing up Cole Palmer’s equaliser for Chelsea.

But since returning from injury at the start of the year, the Albion defender has impressed- making five appearances over 60 minutes long and failing to concede a single goal in that time.

Both on their way back from injuries to take on key responsibilities, the battle between Jackson and Webster will be crucial in this one.

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Jadon Sancho vs Joel Veltman

After a poor performance against Brighton on Saturday, Blues fans’ patience with Jadon Sancho is beginning to wear thin.

Up against Joel Veltman, Sancho failed his three dribble attempts, and like Nkunku, couldn’t register a single shot on goal.

That isn’t to say he hasn’t had his moments in a Chelsea shirt.

For instance, his goal against Spurs, cutting in and smacking it in off the post was reminiscent of his glory days at Borussia Dortmund.

But those days were years ago now, and more often than not, when Chelsea are in a jam you rarely feel like he’s the one to pull them through.

Since the Spurs game on December 8, the only goal involvement Sancho has had was an assist in a 1-1 draw with Crystal Palace on January 4.

While not struggling quite as much as he did at Manchester United, there is a feeling that Sancho needs a strong performance from somewhere to justify his continued selection.

It is likely he will be up against Joel Veltman again on Friday night, which proved difficult last time around.

The Dutchman had Sancho, Marc Cucurella, and then Tyrique George to deal with on his right flank and did so with an assured performance.

Normally a centre-back, Veltman proved useful in attack too, assisting Rutter’s equaliser with a cross he said was inspired by Liverpool’s Trent Alexander Arnold.

While he might need a bit of work to reach those levels, Brighton will be very confident the former Ajax defender can do another job on Chelsea on Friday night.

Enzo Fernandez vs Georginio Rutter

It’s funny how football works.

At the start of the season, £100 million man Enzo Fernandez was regarded as a bit of a lost cause, both on and off the pitch.

But now, he has turned things around and is quickly becoming a player that Chelsea need to have in the starting XI.

After Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall struggled against Brighton in the fourth round, Fernandez was brought on to inject some creativity into the game for the Blues.

In just over 30 minutes, the Argentine made 21 passes to Dewsbury-Hall’s 24, and one key pass, something the former Leicester man and even Cole Palmer failed to do throughout.

Without Fernandez in midfield - even more so with Wesley Fofana and Romeo Lavia out injured- Chelsea are often stranded in build-up.

The World Cup winner will surely be put back into the starting XI to give Chelsea more impetus going forward, but also to help midfield partner Moises Caicedo in his battle with Brighton’s Georginio Rutter.

Rutter has been getting better and better since joining the Seagulls from Leeds in the summer.

The Frenchman is an intelligent second striker whose ability to link the play and take defenders head-on ought to worry Maresca’s side.

Rutter’s output is improving too, something the Blues now know all too well after Saturday.

The former Hoffenheim star levelled the game with a well-placed header past Robert Sanchez, before assisting Kaoru Mitoma’s winner to send Brighton to the fifth round.

Rutter has been in fine goalscoring form recently, now with 5 goals in his last 6 appearances for Brighton, making him a player both Fernandez and Caicedo will have to be wary of yet again.

Noni Madueke vs Tariq Lamptey

Coming off the back of a strong performance against West Ham last week, it looked like Pedro Neto would kick on in the cup against Tariq Lamptey, who struggled at left-back in their 7-0 defeat at Nottingham Forest.

But the former Chelsea academy player, normally a right-back, won Man of the Match opposite the Portuguese winger.

Lamptey made nine tackles against the Blues, the most by a Brighton player in any game since April 2023 - that player being former Seagull Caicedo against Chelsea, also with nine.

With Maresca back to square one in terms of the right-winger position, it’s Noni Madueke’s time to step up.

The England international suits Maresca’s style of play, as he is encouraged to stay wide to isolate and take defenders on, much like how Pep Guardiola deploys his wingers.

Madueke is also Chelsea’s best winger in terms of output this season with 10 goal involvements in the Premier League so far.

What Maresca wants from him is more consistency, to nail that spot down as his own through improved performances both in matches and training.

While Neto flounders, and Lamptey nonetheless still playing out of his preferred position, Madueke has another chance to take that step on Saturday.

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Enzo Maresca vs… himself?

Before the cup game at the weekend, Maresca and Hurzeler had only met once before, in the chaotic 4-2 win for Chelsea at Stamford Bridge earlier on in the season.

Despite a wobbly defensive display, the Blues were deserving winners in the end.

Be it Palmer scoring four goals in one half, Jackson giving defenders headaches, or an impressive home debut for Sancho, fans had every right to be excited about the team’s potential.

That excitement, however, may not have been felt by Maresca, a Guardiola disciple obsessed with controlling matches with possession.

Even after big wins in the early parts of the league campaign, there would still be a hint of dissatisfaction with how Chelsea won the game if it wasn’t for the calm and controlled football the Italian wants.

Maresca was nonetheless praised for his flexibility, something fans had worried about after he was accused of not having a ‘Plan B’ at Championship-winning Leicester City.

During a difficult winter period, Chelsea sought to take more control of games according to Maresca’s wishes, which has resulted in safe possessional play that reminds fans of the stodgy football under compatriot Maurizio Sarri.

Despite the Europa League win, Sarri-ball often made an ageing but decent side, consisting of Eden Hazard in his pomp, quite a tough watch.

The same thing appears to be happening with Chelsea’s new generation led by the mercurial Palmer.

How Maresca’s team has devolved with more control of the game is clear to see in the data.

In the 4-2 win against Brighton in September, Maresca’s side had 41% possession and created 4.16 expected goals (xG).

Chelsea then won 5-1 away at Southampton in December, creating an xG of 5.43 with just 55% possession despite the Saints having a player less for most of the game.

In the 2-1 defeat on Saturday, however, Chelsea registered just one shot on target despite having 57% possession, with everyone on the pitch this time.

The Blues’ form in fact began to turn after a 0-0 draw with Everton at Christmas, with 75% of the ball in that game but only 0.14 more xG created than the Toffees.

It would appear, then, that Maresca has a tactical decision to make.

If Chelsea want to have any hope of beating Brighton and pushing on for Champions League qualification, the data would suggest, along with this writer, that Maresca should allow his young side to thrive in the chaos.

Score Prediction: Brighton 2-2 Chelsea

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