Carabao Cup news: Liverpool vs Newcastle Utd – Five key battles and score prediction
The first major trophy of the season is up for grabs on Sunday, with Newcastle United taking on Liverpool at Wembley for a chance at Carabao Cup glory.
Anthony Gordon, Lewis Hall, and Sven Botman are missing for the Magpies, while Arne Slot will have to deal without defensive duo Joe Gomez and Conor Bradley.
Liverpool are looking to make it back-to-back Carabao Cup titles but will have to beat Eddie Howe’s ambitious outfit, who are desperate to bring a first piece of silverware back to St James’ Park since 1955.
Sports News Blitz writer Dylan Richardson considers five key battles to anticipate in the showpiece and offers a score prediction.
Mohamed Salah vs Tino Livramento
Salah has undoubtedly been the best player in the Premier League this season, scoring 27 goals and registering 17 assists in 29 matches.
The 32-year-old has averaged 3.7 shots per game and hit the target 43.3% of the time.
However, while Salah certainly excels in front of goal, there are some question marks over his ability to take players on, with his success rate in that regard a middling 43.3%.
He will thus need to be at the top of his game on Sunday in order to get the better of Livramento, a good one-on-one defender who has successfully tackled 58% of dribblers to come his way this term.
Livramento also averages 1.1 interceptions per game and will be looking to limit Liverpool’s supply to Salah, especially as the Egyptian is often the recipient of progressive passes.
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Alexander Isak vs Virgil van Dijk
The Magpies missed Isak in their 2-0 loss at Anfield two weeks ago, with Callum Wilson struggling to make the most of the visitors’ few chances.
Isak has established himself as one of the best strikers in Europe this season, scoring 19 goals in 25 matches in the Premier League.
The last time he faced off against Van Dijk was in a 3-3 thriller at the beginning of December, when he scored a stunning goal to open the scoring.
There were five successful dribbles that night for the 25-year-old Swede, but only one was past the Dutchman.
Liverpool have conceded a paltry six goals in their last eight matches, but Isak has scored three goals in his last five, so the winner of this battle could well hold the key to the trophy.
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Bruno Guimarães vs Ryan Gravenberch
Both Guimarães and Gravenberch have been important when it comes to dictating the play for their respective clubs this season.
Guimarães is one of Newcastle’s primary chance creators, averaging 7.8 progressive passes every game.
The Brazilian international also averages 0.79 through balls per 90, enough to see him ranked in the top 1% of midfielders in Europe according to that metric.
Gravenberch, on the other hand, is impressive on both sides of the ball, averaging 1.93 interceptions and two progressive carries per 90 minutes this term.
As a result, this particular battle should be a fascinating watch.
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Harvey Barnes vs Trent Alexander-Arnold
With star man Gordon missing through suspension, Barnes will likely line up for the final.
Barnes, who won the FA Cup with Leicester City in 2021, has had an efficient season in front of goal when he has played, hitting the target with 41.7% of his shots.
The 27-year-old further takes an average of 3.2 shots a game.
On Sunday, the battle between Barnes and Alexander-Arnold will be all the more interesting if the pair match up in isolation as the Liverpool right-back is a poor one-on-one defender, successfully tackling only 43% of dribblers this season.
With that said, Barnes has a take-on success rate of just 36.4%, making the outcome of this battle anyone’s guess.
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Kieran Trippier vs Luis Diaz
Similarly to Alexander-Arnold, Trippier’s strong point is most definitely not one-on-one defending.
Newcastle’s right-back ranks in the bottom 1% of full-backs for dribblers dispossessed and, with Diaz being such a good dribbler, the 34-year-old could be in for a long afternoon.
What Trippier lacks in defensive ability, though, he makes up for in attack, offering 6.3 progressive passes per 90 this season at a success rate of 82%.
And with Gordon absent, Trippier will have no choice but to step up for the Magpies when it comes to chance creation.
Summary
Considering Liverpool’s form – 15 points clear at the top of the Premier League table – and Newcastle’s absentee list, it is clear to see why the competition holders are the favourites for Sunday’s final.
While I do think the Magpies will give them a good game, Liverpool should just have too much for Howe’s side on this occasion.
Score prediction: Liverpool 3-1 Newcastle United
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