Championship news: Luton Town vs Leeds Utd – Five key battles and score prediction
Saturday lunchtime sees a crunch fixture in the Championship as Luton Town host Leeds United in a match-up that could have big repercussions at both ends of the table.
Luton sit 23rd in the standings, three points adrift of safety and with a vastly inferior goal difference to Hull City and Derby County, who both sit on 41 points.
In contrast, Leeds recently surrendered their role as league leaders after an Illan Meslier disasterclass inspired Swansea City to snatch a 97th-minute equaliser at Elland Road.
Here, Sports News Blitz writer Samuel Leasley considers five key battles to anticipate at Kenilworth Road and offers a score prediction.
Matt Bloomfield vs Daniel Farke
Bloomfield knows his Luton side will need to be at their best to avoid relegation, but they took a first step in the right direction by dispatching Hull.
The Hatters will face both Derby and Stoke City in their final run-in, with both fixtures most definitely huge six-pointers.
However, Luton have the hardest final three fixtures of any team in the relegation fight, playing three consecutive play-off-chasing sides in the form of Bristol City, Frank Lampard’s Coventry City, and West Brom.
Despite being the lowest-scoring team in the Championship this season, Luton will sense an opportunity against a Leeds side with an incredibly poor record in early kick-offs.
There is only one question on the lips of every Leeds fan at the moment: will Farke finally drop Illan Meslier?
High-profile mistakes against Hull, Sunderland, and Swansea have cost Leeds an extended lead at the top of the league and now the ever-growing dread of the play-off chase has begun to rear its head.
Leeds looked off the pace against Swansea after taking an early lead yet still appeared to have grabbed all three points thanks to an inspired contribution off the bench from Wilfried Gnonto before the killer blow was delivered.
One win in five games is the worst run of form the Whites have put together all season, and it is clear they need a win on the board to restore a sense of confidence.
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Carlton Morris vs Joe Rodon
A man who will need to find his scoring boots again to bail the Hatters out of danger is Carlton Morris, who sits top of the Luton scoring charts with seven goals.
Despite this, Morris has yet to find the net this calendar year, with his most recent goal coming against Swansea at the end of December.
Morris and his strike partner Elijah Adebayo account for a third of Luton’s league goals this season, with 12 between them, a figure that appears underwhelming considering the 21 goals the duo netted between them in the Premier League last term.
In addition, Morris is a regular favourite of Championship referees as the striker has won 54 fouls whilst giving away 47 himself.
Elsewhere, Joe Rodon struggled to grab his usual hold of the game on Saturday as Leeds conceded twice for the second consecutive match.
Rodon was bailed out by Illan Meslier after giving away a first-half penalty but once again appeared frustrated with his goalkeeper when he dropped a routine catch at the feet of Harry Darling late on.
The Welshman has been a staple of Leeds’ defensive success this season, contributing massively to the 21 clean sheets accumulated by the Whites.
Bringing the ball out of defence also continues to be one of Rodon’s strong points as he sits top of the Leeds charts for passing accuracy at 92%.
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Alfie Doughty vs Jayden Bogle
The player looking to provide both width and defensive cover on the left-hand side for Luton is Alfie Doughty.
Doughty sits atop the Luton assist charts with four assists but is comfortable playing as an attacking full-back in front of a back-three or as a defensive stalwart in a back-five.
The left-back has won the most tackles of any Luton player, making 36, alongside providing the second-most interceptions with 28.
Doughty will need to once again show the defensive acumen on display in Luton’s last two fixtures, when he helped the Hatters fend off Hull and Middlesbrough.
Despite technically operating in a defensive role, Jayden Bogle typically spends most of his time in the opposing half giving endless overlapping runs to Dan James.
Bogle has scored five goals this season from right-back alongside providing two assists.
That is not to say the Englishman has been weak defensively either as Bogle has made the most successful tackles in the squad with 55 and chipped in with 28 interceptions.
However, Bogle is also usually in conversation with the officials, winning 51 fouls this season whilst giving away 49 himself and picking up 10 yellow cards in the process.
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Jordan Clark vs Wilfried Gnonto
Jordan Clark has been in fine form recently for the Hatters and now trails only Morris in total goal contributions.
Clark netted crucial goals against both Portsmouth and Cardiff City, taking his tally to five for the season, and the midfielder continues to be a consistent performer in an inconsistent side.
The central midfielder has also provided strong defensive cover for the Luton back-three by making 29 tackles and 23 interceptions.
The only poor side of Clark’s game is his discipline as he has seen nine yellow cards this season, the most in the squad.
Despite Farke’s stubbornness against changing his starting line-up, it seems Gnonto operating in the number 10 role has brought a significant change to the Leeds attack.
Gnonto was instrumental in the comeback at QPR and netted a fine goal against Swansea after being brought off the bench.
His bit-part role this season has no doubt been frustrating, but the Italian has still provided six goals and five assists in 20 starts.
He is also a regular target of opposition defenders as he has been fouled a staggering 55 times this season, behind only Brenden Aaronson despite starting 17 fewer fixtures.
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Mark McGuinness vs Joel Piroe
At the heart of the Luton defence, McGuinness will have his work cut out to quell the division’s best attack and no doubt a barrage of pressure.
McGuinness has missed only three fixtures this season and has been a regular feature under both Rob Edwards and Bloomfield.
The centre-back has also provided three goals from set pieces and will be looking to exploit Leeds’ weakness from corners.
McGuinness is moreover Luton’s leader in interceptions, with 47 accumulated this season alongside 22 successful tackles.
Someone who will be looking to rediscover good form is Joel Piroe, who has hit a rough patch after a prolific period earlier this year.
Piroe sits second in the Championship scoring charts behind Borja Sainz, with 15 goals to his name, but has not found the net since his piledriver away at Sheffield United.
A lack of support has been evident in recent weeks, however, as the Dutchman will often spend periods absent from the game whilst tightly marked by one or two defenders.
Within the 18-yard box, there is arguably no man more clinical in the Championship than Piroe, but he will need to showcase strong composure and resilience to see Leeds over the line in the automatic promotion race.
Summary
This fixture is one neither side can afford to lose, with Leeds in particular needing to get a result in order to avoid slipping into the play-offs.
Luton have been on a good run of form recently, yet they may just settle for a point against a side vying for automatic promotion.
It has all the makings of a tight affair, but I feel Leeds will avoid their typical early kick-off woes and get a win back on the board.
Score prediction: Luton Town 1-2 Leeds United
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