Leeds United vs Coventry City analysis: Five key battles and score prediction

SoccerChampionship newsLeeds United newsCoventry City news

27 Sept

Saturday brings a tasty affair in the Championship with the last two play-off final losers facing one another in a mid-afternoon clash at Elland Road.

Wembley has not been a happy hunting ground for either side in recent times, especially for Coventry as they were beaten on penalties in their last two visits.

The first being to Luton Town in the 2022/23 play-off final followed by Manchester United denying the Sky Blues an FA Cup final appearance on spot-kicks in the 2023/24 season.

Leeds cemented themselves with the unflattering title of worst-performing play-off final side in the 92, with their 1-0 defeat to Southampton in May making it four play-off final defeats for the Whites.

Coventry took four points off Leeds last season with a 1-1 draw at Elland Road followed by a 2-1 win at the Coventry Building Society Arena.

Leeds will be looking to end this poor record with a home win to further bolster their promotion hopes whilst Coventry will be looking for their first away win of the season to get back on track and move away from the bottom three.

Here, Sports News Blitz’s writer Samuel Leasley considers the five key battles for the 3pm kick-off at Elland Road.

Daniel Farke vs Mark Robins

Daniel Farke arrives back at Elland Road having earned three points away at the Cardiff City stadium in a performance he described as ‘Total control’ which ultimately cost Bluebirds manager Erol Bulut his job.

An early red card gave the Whites the opportunity to assert total domination in both possession and chances which resulted in a 2-0 victory that could have easily been by a larger margin.

The final statistics gave a reflection on the kind of performance Farke would ideally love to gain out of his side on a weekly basis.

Leeds ended with 80% of the ball and 89% passing accuracy across the 90 minutes.

With total domination of the ball and goals from summer signing Largie Ramazani and Joel Piroe, Farke will be looking to further build confidence through his side in a tough spout of fixtures in the build-up to the second international break of the season.

It is likely Farke will look to dominate the ball in a similar fashion in this fixture, yet this could easily prove a difficult task against Coventry City.

They have immense pace on the counter attack and prove a tough opposition in transition due to their high pressing full-backs on either side.

This Achilles heel has already been proved to Farke and the Leeds faithful in the away fixture last season, with Haji Wright netting the eventual winning goal from a fast counter-attack stemming off a Leeds set-piece.

Mark Robins will be looking to extend this unbeaten run against Leeds at Elland Road by picking his side's chances carefully and looking to frustrate the home side.

Robins remains the third longest-serving manager in the 92 and the second longest-serving in the EFL, with only Pep Guardiola and Simon Weaver surpassing Robins’ seven years with the Sky Blues.

The former Manchester United forward has led Coventry from League Two to the brink of the Premier League, collecting an EFL Trophy and a League One title along the way.

Robins has received well-deserved praise for his ability to rebuild the side after key departures over last season’s transfer window.

Talisman Viktor Gyokeres departed for Sporting Lisbon for a fee of £20million and playmaker Gustavo Hamer joined then-Premier League side Sheffield United for £15million.

Even with this exodus of stars, Robins still led the side to a ninth-place finish and will look to build towards a possible play-off berth again this season.

Robins employs a fluid counter-attacking style of play with fast attacks down the flanks and a forward looking to poach any chance within the 18-yard box.

Coventry ended last season with the best goal difference outside of the top six and will look to assert themselves at Elland Road on Saturday.

Robins possesses a possible foil to Farke’s domination of possession and attacking prowess with the pace of his style of play.

The individuals he has at his disposal and their influence will be further analysed below.

Joe Rodon vs Ellis Simms

Joe Rodon faces arguably his biggest threat of the season so far with the arrival of Ellis Simms to Elland Road.

Simms already has a goal against Leeds and Rodon himself, after opening the scoring in Coventry’s home win over the Whites last season.

Rodon will meet the aerially-dominant Simms and look to get the better of him both in the air and in the 18-yard box.

Within Robins’ system, Simms acts as a threat both on and off the ball with his attacking runs dragging defenders away, and opening the door for the inside forwards.

Additionally, his goal-scoring prowess speaks for itself with the Englishman netting 13 Championship goals last season.

Following successful loan spells at both Hearts and Sunderland, Simms was picked up by Coventry for an undisclosed fee from Everton - and was immediately integral to the Sky Blues’ side.

It was not just in the league where Simms found success as he netted six goals in the same number of appearances, including a last-minute equaliser away to Wolves and the goal that sparked the comeback from three goals down at Wembley.

Joe Rodon arrives in this fixture having achieved his fourth clean sheet of the season in perhaps an easy away performance against Cardiff - but the defender will have to be switched on, alongside Pascal Struijk, to monitor the threat of Simms.

In particular the counter-attack threat of Coventry will pose questions to the Welshman, with little time to react for diving into tackles and committing to an attacking player should Leeds push their full-backs forward.

It is likely that Coventry will also carry a threat from set-pieces - and Rodon in particular will need to keep a keen eye out for Simms and nullify any threat that could allow the Sky Blues to take anything away from Elland Road.

This match-up provides an interesting perspective into the ability for Coventry to gain an advantage at Elland Road.

Both with and without the ball, Rodon will have the attention of Simms and this pairing will no doubt provide the key to giving their side the edge in Saturday’s fixture.

Junior Firpo vs Milan Van Ewijk

A battle of two forward-thinking full-backs could provide both sides with the key to unlock the opposing defence, as Junior Firpo will no doubt collide head to head with Milan Van Ewijk.

The width in Leeds’ left-hand side is often provided by Firpo, as Largie Ramazani will be drifting centrally as an inside forward alongside his fellow winger Willy Gnonto.

This will put the Dominican Republic international in a direct collision course with Van Ewijk, who will be providing an overlapping threat in behind Brandon Thomas-Asante.

Should either player drift or roam from position, their opposite number will no doubt look to exploit that space - and with the pace and technical ability that both men possess, each could provide trouble for the defence.

Firpo has so far fended off the threat of Sam Byram and Isaac Schmidt to retain his starting spot at left-back - and looks increasingly secure as his team-mate on the opposite flank Jayden Bogle appears to falter.

The 28-year-old is often found closer to the opposite penalty area than his own as Leeds look to press high and concentrate their numbers up the field, providing an overlap and crossing opportunities that Coventry will look to deny.

Van Ewijk will look to push forward on counter-attacking opportunities for Coventry and provide both Firpo and left-sided centre-back Pascal Struijk with questions in defence.

Despite four league clean sheets this season, the Leeds defence appears more shaky than last season and with the deployment of attacking full-backs there remains gaps for sides to exploit on the counter.

Van Ewijk already has a goal to his name this season with his strike coming in Coventry’s only league win so far this season at home to Oxford United.

Furthermore, the Dutchman also carries a threat from set-pieces, with his first goal for the club coming from a 25-yard free-kick.

The left flank in particular will be a position of interest for the attacking threat of each side, with the roaming nature of both full-backs providing ample opportunity for both attacking momentum yet defensive frailty.

Both Firpo and Van Ewijk will look to provide support for the inside forwards ahead of them and both could possibly find themselves influencing the scoreline in one way or another.

Largie Ramazani vs Haji Wright

Moving onto two wingers who will look to provide an attacking threat for both sides with high expectations following their price tags.

Largie Ramazani joined the Whites in the summer for a fee believed to be around £10million and opened his Leeds account at the Cardiff City stadium before providing a celebration worthy of a place in the Belgian gymnastics team.

Ramazani was brought in by Leeds to act as a direct replacement for Crysencio Summerville following his move to West Ham - and there remains many comparisons between Ramazani and the Dutchman.

Ramazani typifies the tricky winger archetype with his small stature yet electric pace providing defenders with plenty to think about.

Ramazani will retain his place in the starting line-up following injuries to both Manor Solomon and Dan James - and will be seeking to cement himself there with further goal contributions.

Standing at nine inches taller than Ramazani, Haji Wright will look to provide the Leeds defence with problems as he did in the last fixture between these two sides.

Wright capped off a swift Coventry counter attack to score the eventual winning goal for the Sky Blues ending Leeds’ 16 game unbeaten run and arguably being the catalyst for the end of season collapse the Whites faced.

Wright is deployed as either a lone striker or an inside forward in Coventry’s system and has provided plenty of magic moments for the Sky Blues both in the Championship and in their FA Cup run last season.

Bought from Turkish side Antalyaspor for a fee of around £9million to provide attacking contributions alongside Simms and to replace the outgoing Gyokeres, Wright has cemented himself as a top goalscorer against both Championship and Premier League opposition.

He netted a 100th-minute winner at Molineux to send Coventry to the semi-finals of the FA Cup, during which he would convert a 95th-minute penalty against Manchester United to send the game to extra-time.

Wright was also a toenails width away from providing an assist for the game winner yet his 121st-minute assist was ruled offside and Coventry went crashing out in heartbreaking fashion.

Aside from his FA Cup antics, Wright provided 21 goal contributions last season including 16 goals, with his brace against Oxford providing Coventry’s first win of this season.

As an aerially dominant forward who possesses immense speed, Wright will no doubt be a great threat to underperforming Bogle and will look to exploit his opponents’ frailty on Saturday.

Despite their differing builds, both inside forwards provide immense pace and goalscoring threat that will need to be monitored by both Jay Dasilva and Bogle.

Ramazani will provide a huge pace threat down the right-hand side yet Wright provides an aerial advantage on set-pieces should Coventry look to break up play and prioritise the battles out of possession.

As previously discussed, the wide areas will provide an intriguing viewing due to the attacking talent on both sides and the commitment to inside forwards supported by overlapping wing backs will lead to some battles close to the touchline.

Joel Piroe vs Tatsuhiro Sakamoto

Moving onto the threat that both sides possess on the bench and the possible options that could be called upon should a goal be required in the game.

Joel Piroe will no doubt feel hard done by, should he find himself sat on the bench for this fixture following his previous contribution against Cardiff.

Piroe settled the fixture with only his second touch of the ball to score his second goal off the bench this season.

Despite this, Farke often remains committed to a settled side, and it is highly likely that Piroe is left on the bench in favour of Brendan Aaronson.

Either way Piroe provides the confidence in front of goal that can decide a game should the ball fall to him - and Leeds can count on the Dutchman if they are in need of a goal.

Moving across to the Coventry bench we have Tatsuhiro Sakamoto who will provide the Sky Blues with fresh legs in the wide areas should they require it on Saturday.

Sakamoto provided seven goals for Coventry last season despite a number of substitute appearances and provides a separate wide option should Wright be moved centrally or if Robins moves to a 4-2-4 in search of a goal.

At 5ft 7ins, Sakamoto is a separate threat to Wright in terms of his close technical dribbling as opposed to Wright’s speed and power. Coventry may look for his creativity should the game require it.

Sakamoto also remains a unique wide player in the Coventry squad as he operates strictly as a winger as opposed to the inside forward and striker roles taken up by the likes of Wright and Thomas-Asante.

Both Piroe and Sakamoto provide attacking options off the bench for both sides and should either side need a goal it is incredibly likely that we will see the introduction of them both.

Robins and Farke will both be pushing to gain points from this fixture and in the latter stages an extra roll of the dice off the bench could make the difference in this tightly matched fixture.

Both of these sides possess more than enough quality to win the fixture and both will be wanting to push themselves further up the table.

Despite being unable to win an away fixture so far this season, Coventry carry a large attacking threat and will have the confidence of already beating this Leeds side before last season.

It will likely be very tense and rely on individual quality to open up goalscoring opportunities that could provide an avenue for a win that I feel Leeds may just edge.

Prediction: Leeds United 2-1 Coventry City (available at 9/1 in boosted SkyBet market)

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