New Zealand vs England preview: Black Caps to test England ahead of important year
England will be looking to avoid a third successive away series defeat when taking on New Zealand in the upcoming three-Test series.
The series holds extra importance as vital preparation ahead of a defining year for England that sees the visit of India as well as the Ashes Down Under.
Such is cricket’s chaotic schedule that this is England’s third winter tour less than two months after the conclusion of their home international season.
Below, Sports New Blitz writer Dom Harris takes a look at the build-up to Wednesday’s first Test in Christchurch and predicts the England XI.
Bazball under pressure
When former New Zealand captain Brendon McCullum took charge in 2022, England had won only one of their previous 17 Tests. A subsequent upturn in fortunes saw them go on to win 11 of the next 13.
The aggressive philosophy of McCullum’s England side has been compelling to watch and undoubtedly breathed new life into Test cricket. Since the 2023 Ashes, though, results have levelled out somewhat.
This summer, in particular, low-key home victories against significantly weaker opposition were overshadowed by disappointing defeats in India and Pakistan.
Despite racking up a massive 823 for 7 to secure victory against Pakistan in the first Test last month, England’s batters had no answer to the spin duo of Sajid Khan and Noman Ali. The hosts capitalised on more traditional sub-continent conditions to turn the series on its head and exact swift revenge for England’s 3-0 rout just two years ago.
With three defeats in their last four Tests and bigger challenges on the horizon, this series feels like a pretty important one for England. The prospect of flatter pitches and smaller boundaries in New Zealand could be just the tonic to facilitate a Bazball-like response.
A seeming over-commitment to playing positive cricket and the resulting failure to adapt to more testing conditions has come under increasing scrutiny, with England out of contention to qualify for the World Test Championship final for the third cycle running.
Whilst support for McCullum remains high — his role soon expanding to incorporate the white-ball teams — England desperately could do with recapturing that feeling of away success against a strong New Zealand team who have only lost one series in home conditions since 2017.
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England selection headaches
With several multi-format players not considered for selection in the recent white ball tour to the Caribbean, there is only one enforced alteration to the squad.
The 21-year-old batting all-rounder Jacob Bethell is set for a maiden Test call-up in place of gloveman Jamie Smith, who is absent on paternity leave.
Preparations have been further unsettled with Jordan Cox, poised to make his Test debut as stand-in behind the stumps, suffering an unfortunate net injury to his right thumb that has cruelly ruled him out of the series.
Durham’s Ollie Robinson is tipped to be drafted in as a late replacement but, given the short turnaround for the first Test, it is unclear as to whether Ollie Pope will be forced to take the gloves. This would also present an earlier-than-anticipated opportunity for Bethell to debut.
Elsewhere, there is a growing familiarity around England’s batting unit, especially considering they are arriving with the same top six that travelled to New Zealand nearly two years ago.
Vice-captain Pope finds himself under significant pressure after failing to pass 30 in Pakistan while openers Zak Crawley and Ben Duckett will both be eager to start converting positive starts into big scores.
In addition, Ben Stokes’ ability to fulfill his role as the all-rounder will again be a big talking point as he looked far from his normal self on return from injury in Pakistan.
Visitors’ pace attack in the spotlight
After spin was the order of the day in Pakistan, focus now shifts back onto England’s new-look seam attack as they continue to navigate a post-James Anderson and Stuart Broad era.
With Mark Wood sidelined by an elbow injury until the new year and Jofra Archer only stepping up his return in white ball cricket so far, Gus Atkinson and Brydon Carse will be looking to continue their impressive introductions to international cricket.
Surrey quick Atkinson was voted England player of the year following a breakthrough series against West Indies in the summer where he snagged 22 wickets, whilst Carse impressed in Pakistan on Test debut and claimed 4-48 in the recent warm-up fixture.
The experienced Chris Woakes will likely take the new ball, despite an indifferent record outside of England, with Matthew Potts and Olly Stone also providing strong competition for places should they opt to go for an additional seamer.
Somerset teammates Shoaib Bashir and Jack Leach will battle it out as the sole spinner, although both will be anticipating a much lower workload this series regardless.
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New Zealand primed for strong showing
As for the Black Caps, they come into this series off the back of a famous 3-0 whitewash in India, now regarded as one of the greatest Test series wins of all time.
The result was all the more impressive after the Black Caps were convincingly beaten in Sri Lanka just weeks prior.
Against England, the hosts will be boosted by the return from injury of talisman Kane Williamson to strengthen an experienced batting line-up led by newly-appointed captain Tom Latham.
Tim Southee has also announced that this series will be his last before retirement, 16 years after his debut against the same opposition.
The 35-year-old has 385 Test wickets, a record only bettered by Richard Hadlee for New Zealand. More trivially, Southee is just seven maximums away from reaching a century of Test match sixes, which would place him joint-third alongside Australian great Adam Gilchrist and behind only England captain Stokes (131) and head coach McCullum (107).
On the bowling front, despite moving on from long-term servants Trent Boult and Neil Wagner, New Zealand boast the talents of the prolific Matt Henry and the towering Will O’Rourke.
That said, although the stunning triumph in India has kept them in contention of reaching next year’s World Test Championship final, New Zealand will likely need a repeat performance to have any chance of qualifying for the showpiece event at Lord’s.
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England vs New Zealand a recipe for entertainment
Though it may be difficult to look past the drama of the 2019 Cricket World Cup final, England and New Zealand have developed a hard-fought-yet-well-spirited rivalry.
The home series against New Zealand in 2022 famously saw the introduction of ‘Bazball’ and England’s new fearless mentality in the face of fourth innings chases, as exemplified by Johnny Bairstow’s sublime century at Trent Bridge.
Then, on England’s subsequent visit to the land of the long white cloud in February 2023, the tourists rattled along in excess of five an over across the two Tests, with Harry Brook in particularly scintillating form.
However, a dramatic one-run defeat in Wellington having enforced the follow-on — only the second loss by such a margin in Test history — means that England are still eyeing a first Test series win in New Zealand since 2008.
Predicted England XI for first Test
Zak Crawley, Ben Duckett, Ollie Pope (wk), Joe Root, Harry Brook, Ben Stokes (captain), Chris Woakes, Brydon Carse, Matthew Potts, Gus Atkinson, Shoaib Bashir
England in New Zealand fixtures, 2024
27/11 – 01/12: First Test, Christchurch (22:00 GMT)
05/12 – 09/12: Second Test, Wellington (22:00 GMT)
13/12 – 17/12: Third Test, Hamilton (22:00 GMT)
