NFL betting tips: Houston Texans to upset Kansas City Chiefs, Baltimore Ravens to edge Buffalo Bills
After an enthralling wild-card week that produced its fair share of surprises, NFL action moves on to the divisional round.
As a reward for dismantling Sam Darnold and the Minnesota Vikings last time out, the Los Angeles Rams face a tricky trip to the Philadelphia Eagles.
Elsewhere, the Washington Commanders and the Detroit Lions are set for a cracker, the Baltimore Ravens travel to the Buffalo Bills, and the Kansas City Chiefs welcome the Houston Texans.
Sports News Blitz tipster Sam Condy is here with the best betting tips ahead of what promises to be an exciting weekend.
Houston Texans at Kansas City Chiefs
It is finally time to see how good the Chiefs really are.
I have been very sceptical of the defending champions this season, and that is for good reason. Simply put, they are not as good as their record lets on.
In almost every metric, the Chiefs sit right in the middle of the pack, with their only real strength being third-down offence. Luckily for them, Patrick Mahomes thrives on third down.
On Saturday, against a tricky Houston side, the star quarterback will once again need to be on top form if his side are to get a result.
That said, the Texans' third-down defence ranks third in the NFL. Moreover, their opponent conversion rate sits at just 35.5%.
So, while it might be a long shot, I am picking the Texans to pull off an upset this weekend.
Suggested bet: Houston Texans @ 10/3
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Washington Commanders at Detroit Lions
Prepare for fireworks come Sunday.
The Commanders and the Lions have been incredible offensively this season, and they are set to put on a show when they meet at Ford Field in the divisional round.
Both teams rank highly when it comes to attacking metrics, so there will be no shying away from things this weekend.
Defensively, it is a different story, with issues plaguing the two franchises of late. However, those struggles are sure to contribute to an electrifying game of football.
Suggested bet: Over points (55.5) @ 10/11
Los Angeles Rams at Philadelphia Eagles
The Rams pulled off a monumental upset last week when they knocked out the Minnesota Vikings in a one-sided beatdown.
Yet, while the Vikings definitely left their worst run of form for the end of the season and looked a side in despair in the wild-card round, the Rams remain a pretty average side with no real attacking threat.
In contrast, the Eagles have shown far more promise over the course of the regular season, thanks mainly to the red-hot form of quarterback Saquon Barkley.
Unless the Rams can find a way to neutralise Barkley – something no team has managed to do so far this term – I do not see them overcoming the Eagles’ offence on Sunday.
Suggested bet: Philadelphia Eagles (-5.5) @ 5/6
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Baltimore Ravens at Buffalo Bills
In what is the most anticipated game of the divisional round, two favourites for the Super Bowl go head-to-head as the Bills welcome the Ravens to Highmark Stadium.
On the offensive side of things, not much separates the sides, so the battle will in all likelihood be won on defence.
The Ravens appear to have an edge in this regard, ranking inside the top 5 for both EPA per play and opponent success rate.
On the other hand, since gameweek 10, the Bills rank a lowly 32nd and 31st in the same metrics.
Suggested bet: Philadelphia Eagles (-5.5) @ 5/6
The accumulator could be a bit of a long shot this week, because picking the Texans to upset the Chiefs is perhaps a tad optimistic.
With that said, if you are like me and love a good acca, this is the one to go for.
Accumulator odds: 26.81/1
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