PFL betting tips: Khizriev to grind out Loughnane; Santos to down Ditcheva
The 2024 PFL season will draw to a close in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia as the finalists in each weight class battle it out for the 2024 PFL World Championship belt - and a one million dollar cheque to accompany it.
At the top of the card are two English talents - with one looking to break through and become one of the biggest names in women’s MMA in the co-main event, and the other looking to reclaim the title he won in 2022 and become a two-time PFL champion in the main event.
So, let’s get into the predictions with Sports News Blitz’s MMA tipster Niall Togher…
Brendan Loughnane vs Timur Khizriev
Brendan Loughnane is perhaps one of the best examples in MMA today that you don’t necessarily have to be in the UFC to make a good career for yourself.
After infamously not being awarded a UFC contract after winning his fight on the Contender Series in 2019, Loughnane joined the PFL and changed his life forever.
After winning the 2022 PFL Featherweight season, Loughnane fulfilled any fighter's ambition of becoming a champion and a millionaire on the same night.
Despite him not being able to repeat this success in the 2023 season, after Loughnane was eliminated during the regular season following his stoppage loss to Jesus Pinedo, Loughnane has returned to his championship form in the 2024 season and is now just one win away from being a two-time champion.
Loughnane is currently riding a three-fight win streak after he stopped Pedro Carvalho and Justin Gonzales in the regular season before defeating Kai Kamaka by decision in the playoffs.
Loughnane holds a striking advantage over his opponent Timur Khizriev and the Manchester native will need to keep this fight standing if he wants his hand raised in Riyadh.
The keys to victory for Loughnane will be to chip away at Khizriev with his calf kick on the outside as Khizriev tends to use a lot of footwork in his fights before he eventually shoots for takedowns.
This will slow Khizriev down and potentially allow Loughnane to start finding a home for his right hand.
Loughnane also possesses a very good spinning back kick to the body as well as good knees which he can time on opponents as they are ducking down to grab a leg.
We saw these weapons on display in the Kamaka and Carvalho fights respectively and they will need to be used again to warn Khizriev that there are consequences if he decides to go for takedowns.
Khizriev brings an undefeated 17-0 record into the cage with him on Friday night as the Dagestani looks to win the Featherweight title.
YOU MAY ALSO LIKE: Premier League betting tips: Liverpool to add to Man City’s woe, Danny Welbeck to net
Since joining the PFL from Bellator, Khizriev is 3-0 in his 2024 season campaign with decision wins over Brett Johns, Enrique Barzola and Gabriel Braga.
Khizriev tends to mix in the wrestling well in his fights but to call him a one-dimensional wrestler would be inaccurate.
The Russian showed in the Barzola and Braga fights that he is happy to stand and strike and is capable of finding success in that realm.
Khizriev has a good front kick to the body that he often deploys - and despite not carrying the most power with only three of his 17 wins coming by KO/TKO, Khizriev makes up for this with his high-volume approach.
This approach will be crucial to beating Loughnane as he will need to keep Loughnane guessing with his footwork, high output of strikes and constant takedown threat.
If this fight is a clean and technical kickboxing affair, it will favour Loughnane.
Loughnane will also take confidence that he will be able to get back to his feet in the event of him being taken down, as Brett Johns showed this is possible on numerous occasions in his fight with Khizriev - and Johns even managed to briefly take Khizriev’s back at one point.
Khizriev has not proved to be a major submission threat on the ground which will help Loughnane’s confidence in getting back to his feet, but if Khizriev can wear Loughnane down and land his ground and pound, he could grow into the fight the longer it goes.
Suggested bet:
Fighter to win: Timur Khizriev
Method: Decision
Dakota Ditcheva vs Taila Santos
In the co-main event, the winner of the women’s flyweight season will be decided when Dakota Ditcheva squares off against Taila Santos.
The PFL clearly have a lot of stock in Dakota Ditcheva and it’s easy to see why.
The 26-year-old prospect has a professional record of 13-0 and an exciting fighting style to match.
Ditcheva is a homegrown product of the PFL after appearing on numerous PFL Europe cards where she became the 2023 PFL Europe Flyweight champion before being given the chance to enter the 2024 regular season - and it is an opportunity she has grabbed with both hands.
Three fights and three finishes have booked Ditcheva’s place in the final and a win over Taila Santos will catapult her into stardom and instantly make her one of the biggest names in women’s MMA.
Ditcheva has extremely dangerous Muay Thai striking and she can frequently hurt opponents to the body with punches like the body shot against Chelsea Hackett, or with knees from the clinch that she used against Jena Bishop.
READ MORE: NFL betting tips: Kansas City Chiefs to rout Raiders, Cleveland’s luck to run out
Her striking game will also benefit from the fact the PFL are making elbows legal in championship fights - and perhaps she can use these against Santos.
Ditcheva showed in her last contest against talented grappler Jena Bishop that she has the ability to get back to her feet once being taken down - and she will likely need to do this again in her fight against Santos.
All three opponents made some attempt to grapple with Ditcheva in the 2024 season - and Santos will likely be no different.
There is also a question surrounding Ditcheva’s gas tank.
There’s no evidence to say she can’t go five rounds; it’s just her stoppages are so quick she rarely makes it out of the first round and deeper into fights.
She has a stoppage in the third round on her record, but can she do it in the fourth and fifth if needed against a world-class opponent?
Whilst Ditcheva is a prospect with parts of her game still unknown, everybody knows what to expect from Taila Santos.
Santos left the UFC after losing a decision to champion Valentina Shevchenko that many thought she won before going on to lose against Erin Blanchfield.
Since joining the PFL, she has gone 3-0 to set up the fight against Ditcheva and has beaten Ilara Joanne, Jena Bishop and Liz Carmouche.
Santos brings more experience with her, holding a record of 22-3 and more experience against elite opposition whilst showcasing an ability to go five rounds.
Santos has a well-rounded skillset with good striking, albeit not on the level of Ditcheva, but her grappling is likely her ace card in this match-up.
Santos only has three submissions on her record - but has shown an ability to get to the back of her opponents, such as Shevchenko and Carmouche, and control them.
If Santos can come close to a rear naked choke against an accomplished wrestler like Liz Carmouche, she will be confident that she can submit Ditcheva or at the very least, bank rounds.
Santos would be wise to control Ditcheva on the ground in the opening rounds to see how the prospect from Manchester responds to being in the later stages of a five-round fight.
Ditcheva will likely be able to get back to her feet early - but the longer the fight goes, the more it favours Santos on paper
This fight could be a case of coming just a bit too soon for Ditcheva but she could prove me wrong, especially with her finishing capabilities on the feet.
Suggested bet:
Fighter to win: Taila Santos
Method: Submission
Bonus bet: Round 4 submission
