Six Nations 2025: Score predictions and analysis for the opening three games

Excitement is building for the 2025 Six Nations tournament, which kicks off when France play hosts to Wales at the end of January.

Les Bleus take on the Welsh 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿 at 8.15pm on Friday, January 31 - while Scotland face Italy before England face a tough away clash with Ireland in a 4.45pm clash.

Here, Sports News Blitz’s rugby union writer Luke Ebden provides six predictions across all three games…

Friday, January 31, France vs Wales, kick-off 8.15pm (UK time)

The last time these two sides met in the opening round of the Six Nations Championship, six years ago, Wales famously overturned a 16-point half-time deficit to claim victory in Paris.

Both sides looked very different then, with Wales flying high and eventually winning the Grand Slam, and France in a state of transition, winning just two games in the Championship.

These days, it’s the other way around, and a Welsh victory in Paris is very unlikely this year.

France were very up and down last year, and could easily have lost all five of their Six Nations games.

Narrow wins over England and Scotland, combined with a comfortable win over Wales and a scrappy draw with Italy, was enough to secure second place, though this was not a true reflection of the rugby they played.

However, they were very strong in the recent November Tests, which gives them a good platform to build on for the upcoming Championship.

Conversely, Wales lost five from five to claim the wooden spoon, and won only two games all year, which came in the July Test matches.

Both teams are missing some key players.

France are without ex-captain Charles Ollivon (ACL), and centre pairing Jonathan Danty (knee) and Gael Fickou (broken thumb).

Ollivon is a seasoned leader, and acts as the marshal of France’s lineout, therefore his absence is set to take a toll on their set-piece.

Fickou serves as the defensive captain for France and is arguably the biggest miss, and this is likely to lead to opportunities for Wales to expose a weakened French defence.

Wales do not go without absentees of their own, they miss captain Dewi Lake (bicep), prop Archie Griffin (shoulder) and second row Adam Beard (knee).

These injuries in the tight five are going to affect Wales’s set-piece, allowing France to surely take the edge in the scrum, and possibly the lineout if Ollivon is suitably replaced, by options such as Cameron Woki.

These two teams certainly create exciting matches, with four of the last five games seeing both teams scoring in excess of 20 points.

The return of Antoine Dupont is likely to be the difference in this game, and will certainly catch the headlines.

Having missed the 2024 edition through pursuing Olympic glory in the Sevens team, Dupont is back to lead the charge to regain the Six Nations this year.

And he will certainly make the difference in what I anticipate to be a very scrappy and high-scoring opening night in Paris.

Score Prediction: France 34-22 Wales

Player to Watch: Antoine Dupont

Saturday, February 1, Scotland vs Italy, kick-off 2.15pm (UK time)

The pieces finally clicked for Italy in the 2024 Six Nations, picking up wins against Scotland and Wales, and achieving a draw in Paris.

They were very unlucky to come fifth in the Championship overall, having successfully played free-flowing, attacking rugby with a stable defence.

Scotland travelled to Rome last year two from three, and Italy stunned them with a phenomenal upset, which bucked the trend of comfortable Scottish wins over the previous five years.

Hours after the game, England pulled off an upset of their own, beating Ireland in Round 4, which means had Scotland won in Rome, they would have forced a Championship decider in Dublin.

Italy could not keep this breakthrough season going, however, slipping back into old habits, especially in the November Tests.

Contrastingly, Scotland had a successful November, ending on a high against Joe Schmidt’s rejuvenated Australia.

This gives them the perfect momentum to carry into this one.

Scotland have the second most-favourable draw for fixtures in this year’s Championship, with three home games, including the first two rounds, and a strong start against Italy could build momentum for a Scottish title charge, they have as good a chance this year as they ever have.

Whilst I am a true believer Italy are on the upward curve, I don’t see it happening this year.

They have a largely settled squad which is very strong in many areas, but the lack of quality at half-back and the front row will be their undoing this year.

Scotland have a very strong scrum, and a settled pack, which will be too much for Italy, as it has been in the past.

Matters are made worse for Italy by the ban for Mirco Spagnolo, who was one of only two loose-head props used by Italy last year.

This puts extra pressure on Danilo Fischetti, Italy’s main man in the front row, to perform.

All of this points to a field day for Pierre Schoeman, the Scottish loose-head.

Schoeman regularly plays well over an hour, which is rare for a prop, and is lethal at scrum time, where he will be up against Italy’s weaker side of the scrum.

He is also a machine ball in hand, and assumes the role of one of Scotland’s main ball carriers.

Schoeman’s work up front, along with that of the rest of the Scottish pack, will be too much for Italy, and will allow the world class Scottish back-line to flex its muscles.

I expect a comfortable win in front of the Murrayfield faithful.

Score Prediction: Scotland 45-12 Italy

Player to Watch: Pierre Schoeman

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Saturday, February 1, Ireland vs England, kick-off 4.45pm (UK time)

Finally, the hardest game of the weekend to call.

Cast your mind back to 12 months ago, clock in the red, England camped in the Irish 22, the ball pulled back to Marcus Smith who slots the drop goal for a famous victory at HQ.

England were brilliant, Ireland perhaps a tad complacent - but I simply don’t see a repeat this year.

Both teams were sub-par in November.

Back-to-back champions Ireland lost out to New Zealand, before winning their other three games unconvincingly.

England’s November was worse, and has furthered the idea they are becoming the “nearly but not quite” team, having narrowly lost to Australia and New Zealand (for the third time in the calendar year), beaten convincingly by South Africa, but rounding out on a high by dismantling Eddie Jones’s Japan.

This inability to get over the line, which was a feature of 2024, is a growing concern, and with home advantage to Ireland, I don’t see England getting across the line in this one either, though I do expect them to be competitive.

England come into this game with so many question marks.

How is Joe El-Abd going to set up the defence with Felix Jones fully out of the picture?

Who replaces the injured Immanuel Feyi-Waboso and George Furbank?

Is it Marcus Smith, and if so who starts 10?

What combination will Borthwick go for in the back row?

Can England hold the scrum up?

Does Borthwick continue with Slade and Lawrence in the centres?

All of this uncertainty makes England the hardest to predict going into this Championship.

One thing about England, though, is they are always competitive, and whilst they lost lots of games narrowly last year, they were in nearly all of them for at least an hour, and that’s why I don’t expect them to be blown away in Dublin.

For me though, it’s Ireland who will win this one.

The style of play will remain unchanged despite Andy Farrell not being in the dugout.

Ireland are a settled team with great depth, and very limited injury concerns (the main one being if Tadhg Furlong will be fit for the start of the Championship).

Mack Hansen has recently been handed a three-match ban for comments about the refereeing in his club side Connacht’s game against Leinster, which means his first possible game back would be the Six Nations opener against England.

I expect him to come straight back in, he is the clear first-choice having started all four Tests in November.

Should he come back in, he will certainly be playing with an added bit of aggression.

And given he’s likely to be up against Ollie Sleightholme and Freddie Steward - the most likely injury replacements for England, neither of whom are particularly great defensively - Hansen could be the spark for Ireland in a close-fought affair.

Score Prediction: Ireland 26-17 England

Player to Watch: Mack Hansen

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