Six Nations analysis: England vs Italy review - Preview and score prediction vs Wales

Sunday, March 9 saw a brilliant display of attacking rugby on the Twickenham turf - a show which fans of England have been crying out for since the opening of the 2025 competition.

Steve Borthwick and his coaching team finally released the shackles of his squad, filled with attacking ability throughout the backline, but before restricted by a rigid kicking game.

The 47 points scored by the team in white came with great variation of scorers and methods, and England still have an outside chance at the title if Scotland can do them a favour against a French side missing their talisman, Antoine Dupont.

Here, Sports News Blitz’s Jacob Garrett discusses several key talking points from the Italy game - then turns his attention to a game versus the much-improved Wales side.

Attacking freedom

Platform set by forwards: Two

After a two-week break of media and ex-players complaining about England’s ‘boring’ attacking structure which relied on one phase then into launching box kicks, it was clear that Borthwick and Richard Wiggleworth (England’s attack coach) had earmarked this game to alter this and get on the front foot and play a more expansive game - and they certainly did that.

Looking into the statistics, against Scotland the team in white only made 78 carries, this was almost doubled on Sunday as Borthwick’s men carried 145 times.

This focus on carrying the ball opposed to kicking was the foundation on which this display was built. The back-row came into their own this week.

The trio of Tom Curry, Ben Earl and Tom Willis have not been quiet by any stretch of the imagination, but on paper, they are probably up there with the trios of France and Ireland, and maybe have not lived up to that standard thus far.

Tom Curry has been exceptional throughout this year’s competition and Tom Willis has been decent since claiming the eight shirt, whereas Earl has not quite been living up to his high standards set in the World Cup and Autumn respectively.

But at the weekend, the three matched and surpassed the standard set by the Sale flanker, all three topping the personal carry statistics and really setting the platform for the backline to shine.

This is perfectly shown through Marcus Smith’s try at the opening of the second half.

Post some fantastic footwork seen by England’s tighthead, Will Stuart, a classic ‘arrowhead’ formation set up by England with Willis at the first man and Curry on his outside.

Willis draws the first defender and drops a lovely tip-on pass to Curry who wins the collision and draws in both Italy’s centre, Tommaso Menechello, and blindside, Sebastian Negri.

The Shark then offloads expertly to Smith, who slices through the Italian line and finishes in his classic fashion.

This try encompasses the quality of the back-row throughout the game, where all three were legitimate candidates for the player of the match.

With the addition of the carrying combined with the rest of the work done by the front eight, England’s backline was set with an excellent platform for the attacking display seen at Twickenham.

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England’s backline improvements

With this foundation set by the forwards, the backline had the ability to execute well, and they did on the majority.

There were some raised eyebrows on Wednesday when Borthwick announced his team with Elliot Daly and Fraser Dingwall picked in the starting 15.

These critics were quickly silenced as both were quality against the Italians.

Daly epitomised this new forward thinking and expansive style in the opening minutes of the game.

After a steal in midfield, Daly was given the ball in transition - instead of hitting up and box kicking, the Saracen pinned his ears back and attacked the right edge of the Italian defence.

From this Finn Smith executed the shape and went wide early to his fellow Saint Tommy Freeman, who broke away and chucked an offload inside to Curry - which eventually led to a try for Tom Willis, the phase after.

From Daly’s front-foot and attacking mindset, England went from their half to the tryline in 24 seconds.

This, coupled with his clever kicking game after moving into midfield post Ollie Lawrence’s unfortunate injury - which included a try assist off the boot for Freeman - the Saracens ever-present certainly justified his selection.

Then to move to the Saints centre. The word ‘glueman’ has been chucked around in the media since his selection.

Prior to the game, there were several eyebrows raised around whether his inclusion was ‘progressive’ enough.

This notion of Dingwall being coined the ‘glueman’ was exactly how he performed within this English backline.

To play this expansive style, a facilitator, a calm head is often needed to settle and provide the more expressive players with the space to do what they do best - and this is exactly what Dingwall provided.

The Italian backline seemed to target the Saint. With Juan Ignacio Brex being one of the premier defending centres of the northern hemisphere, he made multiple quality defensive reads, shooting up and attempting to shut down the ball before it could get to the outside 15-metre channel.

With this Dingwall adapted, often holding his feet and depth to revive the pressure and passing it off to his tip or outside runners to either score or give the killer pass off.

The Saint hits this narrative of the type of player who is a master of the basics, and Dingwall is exactly the type of player who sits inside this idea - a perfect cog for the expressive style England looked to present.

And without him, I would argue the style in which England looked to play would not have been achieved to the same level.

Defensive questions still remain? Analysing each Italian try

Despite a brilliant attacking display, I would argue there are still some question marks around this ever-transitioning defensive system.

The opening Italian try really exposed a shortcoming of Joe Al-Abd’s set-up.

Unlike the Scottish team, who looked to exploit England’s outside channels, the opening Italian try went straight through the midfield of the English line.

England’s defensive system, as a basic definition, shoots up aggressively within the midfield and then transitions to a softer ‘drift’ defense outside the 13 channel.

With this, the Italian fly-half Paolo Garbisi exploited the aggressive midfield pressure with a delicate dinked kick over the rushing defence which was collected by Brex.

This move then had the English defence scrambling, in turn the Italian ruck speed was rapid and they worked out wide to the winger Monty Ioane, who then put through another quality kick for Toulouse starlet Ange Capuozzo.

Within this rapid phase of play, the Italians provided an expert blueprint on how to attack against this system from a set-piece - posing a big question for Al-Abd before travelling to Cardiff.

Ross Vincent’s try again provided some questions for this defence in kicking transition.

After a long free kick by Fin Smith, the Italians took a quick lineout to the Capuozzo who looked up and saw a very poor chase line.

After busting a gut England’s newest centurion, Jamie George, was one of the first men standing up against the fullback.

Despite being a quality operator, George is not the most agile defender.

Capuozzo saw this and ghosted past the hooker and fell into a very disjointed chase from the English front eight. He picked them all off, and provided a tip line to the electric Ross Vincent who went in from 40 metres out.

This poor chase line is a bit of a ‘school boy’ error from the English team, and in turn still raises some questions in transitional defense.

In terms of the final Italian try, it is hard to be too critical. With the game in a bit of a lull, after England felt they had wrapped up the game, perhaps the defence was not operating in the way it should be. But with that in mind, there were still some concerning mistakes.

After a fantastic carry by the replacement, Manuel Zuliani, the Italians were left with less than five metres to the whitewash.

The scrum-half picked out Thomaso Mencello who walked into the deadball line unopposed.

Questions have to be asked around the ease of this line.

The young Harlequin, Chandler Cunningham-South, was seen watching the Italian talisman waltz in to score and therefore has to be looked at for his defensive mindset.

Despite his physicality in the contact, I would be tempted to question his qualities without the ball, and that is perhaps something to work on for the young back-rower.

All of these tries have something in common, a poor scramble defence in transition.

The tries conceded on Sunday were seen as Borthwick’s team was on the backfoot.

Of course, this is one of the hardest times to defend, but to be the best, looking at the likes of South Africa or France, the art of scramble defence has to be improved.

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Wales preview and score prediction

Despite the possibility of England winning the Six Nations looking rather unlikely, as a result of France’s quality, they still have to give themselves the best chance possible going away to Cardiff.

But despite Wales sitting bottom in the table, they are certainly not a pushover under new coach Matt Sherratt.

The Welsh, at the opening of the competition, would have circled this game in their calendars for a sense of redemption. And under Sherratt, this could be a real possibility.

The fight in which they displayed against Scotland was very impressive, and with the increased importance of the game, an upset could very much be on the cards.

Looking more at the tactical side of the game rather than pure emotion, both Scotland and Italy - in parts - have shown elements on how to exploit England’s defensive system.

Scotland got a lot of joy through throwing the ball wide and isolating the outside defenders, whereas the Italians looked to test the high-pressured inside defence, putting through clever kicks and using individual brilliance.

With this, could the Welsh go one further than the Scottish and Italians?

For me, they may find a way of getting through or around England and perhaps take the lead and control of the game.

But England’s attacking quality and continuity with the familiarity of playing together (the large Northampton Saints group) will carry the English to a good win against a fired-up Welsh side.

Score prediction: Wales 15 England 35

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