What the 2024 NFL season reveals about betting on the 2025 season
The 2024 NFL season offered valuable insights for bettors heading into the 2025 season. Several intriguing trends emerged that can help inform your betting decisions.
Understanding how frequently favorites prevailed and shifts in traditional betting strategies can give you a competitive edge in the upcoming season.
By analyzing these trends, you can refine your approach and make more informed wagers.
The Rise of Favorites
Favorites ruled the day in 2024, winning outright 72% of the time - the third-highest figure since 1980. That trend was even more pronounced late in the year, with favorites 14-2 straight-up in Week 17 alone.
Bettors who were steadfast in backing favorites, especially those favored by six or more points, were rewarded with consistent success. Those squads went 29-1 straight-up from Week 13 on.
This had a significant impact on sportsbooks. While winning favorites continued to be backed by bettors, sportsbooks were taking a beating.
Some reported multi-million-dollar losses due to the high rate of favorite victories.
The question for 2025 is whether sportsbooks will more aggressively move lines to account for this trend or if the domination of favorites will continue.
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Team-Specific Betting Performance
There were distinct trends in team performance during the 2024 season that had a significant impact on betting results.
Certain teams tended to cover the spread consistently, making bettors who supported them wealthier, while others disappointed.
A cursory glance at the NFL standings 2024 will show that several teams not only straight-up dominated but also posted good returns ATS.
Detroit Lions: The Lions were bettors' favorite team, posting a 12-5 record against the spread and ranking first in the league in average coverage margin. Those who wagered on Detroit on a regular basis received decent returns.
Tennessee Titans: At the opposite side of the spectrum, the Titans were the worst team to bet on, finishing the season at 2-14-1 ATS. People who placed their bets in hopes of them turning it around mid-season lost heavily.
When preparing for the upcoming season, it's essential to pinpoint which teams consistently overperform or underperform against the spread.
Despite annual roster changes, some franchises tend to exhibit persistent trends of success or futility, making this insight valuable for informed betting decisions.
Reevaluating Traditional Betting Angles
The 2024 campaign defied several long-standing betting tenets, forcing bettors to rethink long-held assumptions.
Bye Week Edge: Traditionally, bye week teams have enjoyed a statistical edge. That advantage vanished in 2024. Bye week teams were not performing as expected, and because of that, their ATS winning percentage was in decline. What this implies is that the extra rest can be factored in by oddsmakers early in the lines, so such an edge is far less worthy of consideration.
Home Underdogs Played Terribly: Home underdogs have been a long-term profitable bet for years, but 2024 was the season they failed to deliver. Home underdogs posted a horrendous 43% ATS record - the worst since 2005. The theory that home teams inherently gain an advantage from the crowd noise and comfort factor wasn't true, at least not last season.
With these trends no longer yielding results, bettors must be more selective in their approach for 2025.
Blindly backing home underdogs or teams returning from a bye week is no longer a reliable strategy; instead, a more discerning approach is needed to achieve profitability.
Strategies for the 2025 Season
With 2024 rapidly receding in the rear view mirror, bettors will be able to tune their game plan for 2025 based on lessons learned.
With coaching changes, roster reconfigurations, and possible rule changes on the horizon, it helps to get ahead of the curve.
Remaining up to speed on latest NFL news will be enlightening about injuries, team chemistry, and sportsbook line fluctuations, which all impact game results.
Follow Line Movement: Since favorites dominated in 2024, sportsbooks may try to adjust by inflating point spreads for superior teams. By following line movement, bettors can identify when an underdog is getting too many points, creating a value opportunity.
Evaluate Team-Specific Trends: Certain teams, such as the 2024 Lions, performed better than expected against the spread, while others, such as the Titans, failed to cover. By focusing on these trends, gamblers can know which teams to support or fade at the beginning of the 2025 season.
The Agile Approach
The 2024 NFL season served as a reminder of the importance of bettors being nimble and following shifting trends.
The dominance of the favorites, decreasing value in conventional betting methods, and team-specific trend value are all good lessons.
With the 2025 season on the horizon, it will be important to watch and shift betting strategies accordingly to make more intelligent, profitable bets.
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