Leeds United vs Derby County analysis: Five key battles and score prediction
Elland Road is all set for a hard-fought affair this weekend as Leeds United host struggling Derby County in a must-win clash for both sides.
Leeds suffered another poor result on the road last week against Blackburn Rovers while Derby left it late to throw away a point at home to Sheffield Wednesday.
With the competition for automatic promotion places so fierce, the Whites simply cannot afford anything less than three points against the Rams.
In this article, Sports News Blitz writer Samuel Leasley considers five key battles in the early kick-off on Saturday and offers a score prediction.
Daniel Farke vs Paul Warne
With Leeds having entered the fixture at Ewood Park in fine goal-scoring form, Farke will no doubt have been disappointed by the lack of efficiency in the final third.
Joel Piroe and Wilfried Gnonto both missed glorious chances that would have turned the game on its head, but it was not to be as the result saw Leeds drop out of the automatic promotion places.
In typical Leeds fashion, they dominated the ball with 72% possession but were stifled by a Blackburn side intent on breaking up play.
There were also frustrations about the manner in which the Whites lost, with many claiming that Todd Cantwell dived prior to contact with Pascal Struijk in order to win the penalty.
Regardless, Farke will turn his attention to extending Leeds’ impressive home form that has seen them win every game since the loss to Burnley in September.
Warne, on the other hand, will be looking to create some sort of momentum following a poor run of form from the Rams post the international break.
Derby have taken just a single point from their last three fixtures, with narrow home defeats to Wednesday and Swansea City following an underwhelming draw at Preston North End.
In addition, Warne will want to improve on his side’s distinctly poor away record, having picked up a solitary win on the road all season.
It would thus not be surprising to see Derby pack the midfield using a familiar 4-1-4-1 system so as to restrict space and frustrate the hosts with a low block.
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Brenden Aaronson vs Ben Osborn
After a quiet showing in the midweek game against Luton Town, Aaronson was once again ineffective at Ewood Park and was roundly criticised for looking off the pace and ‘lightweight’ in the face of the Rovers midfield.
Whilst games are often quieter for Aaronson when teams sit deep and restrict midfield space, his lack of attacking output continues to be a cause for concern for all involved.
In particular, his lack of assists is a worrying statistic for a creative midfielder. Indeed, his last assist came in September’s win at Cardiff.
The drought is not due to a lack of effort, it must be said, with the American attempting more shots than any other Leeds player in that time (27).
He has been strong defensively too, making 14 successful tackles as a result of his high-pressing game.
On the opposite side of the pitch, Derby will miss the presence of Ebou Adams as the tough-tackling midfielder picked up his fifth yellow card of the season against Wednesday.
Adams has won an unbelievable 49 tackles, more than double any of his teammates, and made the second-most interceptions in the squad (27).
The man likely to fill Adams’ role is the versatile and energetic left-back Osborn, who has already slotted seamlessly into the defensive midfield this season and also created 22 attacking chances.
In the end, while Adams is a huge loss for Saturday, former Forest star Osborn might just prove an effective replacement.
Joe Rodon vs Kayden Jackson
Rodon is sure to be frustrated that Leeds could not make it back-to-back clean sheets at Ewood Park despite him not putting a foot wrong.
The Welshman actually had a relatively quiet afternoon as Rovers sat back and wasted time after taking an early lead.
An ever-present for the Whites this season, he has formed a strong partnership with Struijk, often with the help of the hard-working Ao Tanaka in midfield.
Rodon’s defensive play has seen him make 11 successful tackles and nine interceptions alongside a near-immaculate passing accuracy of 92%.
Considering the probable need for counter-attacking football on Saturday, Derby could do worse than turn to Jackson for a route to goal.
The former Ipswich man has only scored twice in the league this season but has garnered a reputation for hard work whilst regularly operating as a lone forward.
He did end up scoring the counter-attacking winner in a smash-and-grab win at home to Middlesbrough in August, and Derby fans will hope for a similar outcome this weekend.
Despite his lack of goals, Jackson cannot be criticised for his efforts as he has attempted the most shots (21) as well as the most shots on target (13) in the Derby squad.
And to be fair, the striker was particularly unlucky against Swansea when he somehow accumulated an expected goals (xG) of 1.79 while failing to find the net.
Jackson will therefore be looking to get back on the scoresheet at Leeds and, in doing so, give Derby some breathing room in the battle to stay out of the relegation zone.
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Junior Firpo vs Nathaniel Mendez-Laing
Firpo’s return to the Leeds side following suspension was not the barnstorming reinstatement that he would have hoped for as he was decidedly impotent against Blackburn.
Usually operating as an attacking full-back, Firpo has made the second-most interceptions (18) and won the third-most tackles (16) in the Leeds squad despite the occasional rash decision-making.
Further, this fixture marks his 100th game in a Leeds shirt, and the Dominican will no doubt look to mark the occasion.
Having accumulated three assists and a goal this season, Firpo balances dual roles down the left flank as an overlapping threat and a defensive marshal.
On Saturday, however, he is set to come up against Championship veteran Mendez-Laing.
In addition to his two goals and three assists — trailing only Jerry Yates in output in the Rams’ squad — the Guatemalan international has created 28 chances and made 33 successful crosses in just 18 appearances.
Defensively, Mendez-Laing has registered 19 successful tackles and 17 interceptions in what has been a productive and combative campaign for the club captain so far.
Against Leeds at Elland Road, where he will most likely operate as part of a low block, those numbers will be key to defending the likes of Gnonto and Firpo.
Joel Piroe vs Eiran Cashin
Piroe was unable to extend his lead atop Leeds’ goalscoring charts on Sunday, and he will have rued the missed chances that saw his club once again fail to score away from home.
All seven of Piroe’s goals this season have come within the 18-yard box, yet that poaching role often sees the Dutchman isolated for large parts of games against sides that sit back.
His efficiency in front of goal is genuinely impressive, with those seven goals coming courtesy of only 11 shots on target, but Derby must ensure that he is afforded the space he needs.
With Firpo, Daniel James, and Largie Ramazani all returning to the playing squad, the Whites suddenly possess an abundance of creative options and this will only benefit Piroe.
Cashin, in contrast, will seek to lock down Piroe and any attacking threat that Leeds can conjure in order to give Derby the best chance of taking something from the fixture.
Arguably the most consistent performer in the Rams’ backline, the Irishman possesses the highest defensive return with a staggering 34 interceptions alongside 23 tackles won.
Those numbers are in addition to his 54 aerial battles won and 87 recoveries in the defensive third.
Alongside Curtis Nelson, Cashin will be key in frustrating the home team and setting up direct plays in order to feed the attackers whenever Leeds are drawn forward in numbers.
By all accounts, this fixture has the making of a hard-fought affair with the Derby midfield cancelling out Leeds’ forward line on paper.
Ultimately, if Leeds can break the Rams’ defensive resilience early, they will be well-placed to score a few more, otherwise it may very well be a low-scoring game.
Score prediction: Leeds United 1-0 Derby County
