MMA betting tips: Ian Machado Garry to hand Carlos Prates his first UFC loss

After a phenomenal pay-per-view event in Miami last weekend, the UFC will keep the ball rolling with a showdown between welterweight contenders Ian Machado Garry and Carlos Prates in Kansas City on April 26.

Garry lost the number one contender’s bout in December and will be hoping to get back on track with victory over a dangerous up-and-comer.

For Prates, the fight is a significant step-up but one that his form has warranted, with the Brazilian having racked up a 4-0 UFC record thanks to four knockouts.

Sports News Blitz writer Niall Togher previews the bout and offers a prediction.

Garry seeking redemption for Rakhmonov loss

Despite losing to Shavkat Rakhmonov in his last fight, Garry’s stock rose considerably.

The Irishman proved that he could be extremely competitive against one of the best fighters in the division and someone tipped to be a future champion.

He even managed to win the third round of the contest before nearly shocking the world in the fifth by submitting Rakhmonov.

Garry was also the first fighter whom Rakhmonov was unable to finish in his professional career.

Against Prates, Garry will no doubt use that newfound experience to his advantage, and the fight is likely to favour him the longer it goes on.

He might look to use the oblique kicks that worked so well against Rakhmonov in order to hinder the movement of Prates early on as the Brazilian’s previous opponents have been successful in landing strikes to his lead leg.

Moreover, ever since he started training full-time under Demian Maia and Charles Oliveira at Chute Boxe, Garry’s grappling game has developed massively – a key weapon against someone like Prates, who has struggled with clinches against the fence in the past.

Indeed, if Garry can push him up to the fence early on and perhaps get a takedown or pick at his legs from range, it could serve to slow Prates down as the fight enters later rounds.

READ MORE: MMA news: Ian Garry ‘seething’ after title bout denial, excited for Carlos Prates match-up

Prates looking to enter the top 10

It is fair to say that Prates has exploded onto the UFC scene, with four KOs in nine months.

The Brazilian is yet another product of the Fighting Nerds gym, a team that regularly produces exciting contenders and seems to be taking over the sport.

And it is no secret what Prates specialises in thanks to the tattoo on his chest: Muay Thai.

As a result, Prates tends to favour thudding low kicks, a vicious step-in knee, and a powerful left hand that has seen him knock out veterans such as Neil Magny and Li Jingliang, two fighters who are notoriously hard to stop.

Those finishes weren’t just TKOs either – Prates put them both out cold in a showcase of his power.

Another thing Prates can take confidence from going into the match-up with Garry is his dominant UFC record, achieved while continually ascending the ranks of fighters.

Garry, on the other hand, has not finished an opponent in his last four fights.

Since he stepped up to face the likes of Magny and Geoff Neal, the Irishman has not looked overly dominant despite his obvious potential.

However, Prates is – somewhat notoriously – a big smoker and that will surely play a part in the biggest fight of his career so far.

Prates’ raw talent has been enough to get him this far, clearly, but we really do not know how he will fare in the latter half of a five-round fight against a consummate professional like Garry.

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Garry to overcome Prates on the scorecards

Although Prates has looked phenomenal in the UFC up to now, the safer bet in this fight would be on Garry.

The Irishman is a great striker, even if he lacks the one-shot power of his opponent, and has the advantage in grappling and overall experience across five rounds.

Garry will likely look to mitigate Prates’ threat early on by using the clinch and going for the legs before opening up more as the rounds go on.

Prates definitely has the resources to hurt Garry in this fight, but the latter has displayed tremendous powers of recovery after being dropped before, particularly against Kenan Song.

In the end, unless Prates fades exponentially in the later rounds, you can probably expect this fight to go to the scorecards and for Garry to have his hand raised.

Fight prediction: Ian Machado Garry to win by decision

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