MMA betting tips: Joaquin Buckley to KO Colby Covington and end 2024 with a bang

The UFC is set to cap off a memorable 2024 with a fight night event in Tampa headlined by welterweights Joaquin Buckley and Colby Covington.

After initially entering the UFC as a middleweight, despite being just 5ft 10ins, Buckley quickly became a fan favourite due to his style, writes Sports News Blitz’s Niall Togher.

Size matters 

However, Buckley frequently hovered just outside the top 15 at middleweight and it became evident that the size difference would be too much at 185 if he wanted to eventually challenge for a title when he faced the likes of Nassourdine Imavov and even Chris Curtis, who himself is short for a middleweight.

These two losses back-to-back for Buckley made him step down a weight class to welterweight to try and his luck and since then he has been perfect. Five fights, five wins with three finishes. 

Since moving to 170 pounds, Buckley has added notable names such as Vicente Luque and Stephen Thompson to his resumé to propel himself into the top 10 of the division.

A win over former interim UFC welterweight champion Covington would see Buckley accumulate a remarkable 4-0 record in 2024 alone - and would set him up for a fight against a top-five opponent in the first half of 2025.

Frustrating to watch

Covington on the other hand has been frustrating to watch over the last few years. 

His last win came back in 2022 over Jorge Masvidal and long spells of inactivity have not helped Covington recently.

He is 2-3 in his last five fights - albeit all those three losses came in a championship-setting - but this fight on Saturday will be just his sixth fight in six years. 

Prime not optimised

It has been disappointing to see a fighter of Covington’s quality fight so infrequently and at the age of 36, it’s starting to feel like he did not capitalise on the prime of his career like he perhaps could have done.

To win this fight he needs to turn back the clock and deliver a vintage Colby Covington performance where he overwhelms Buckley with a frantic pace and constant volume to open up his wrestling like he did in his fight against Robbie Lawler.

Covington’s last performance against Leon Edwards was a far cry from the Covington that fought Lawler. 

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Picked apart

He was timid, circled on the outside and just allowed himself to be picked apart by the superior striker. 

Perhaps this is down to the broken foot Covington sustained early in that fight with Edwards that prevented him from imposing his will.

Covington was also hesitant against Kamaru Usman in the early rounds of their rematch due to the threat of Usman’s power.

And with Buckley himself carrying tremendous power, Covington cannot make the same mistake. He will need to wade through the fire early to not allow Buckley to build any momentum.

These takedowns could present themselves for Covington if Buckley overextends on his hooks and combinations from the outside as he can do at times.

Confidence sky high

Buckley’s confidence going into the fight will be at an all-time high following his KO win over decorated kickboxer Stephen Thompson. 

Buckley’s style is unique as he shifts laterally frequently and uses his explosive athleticism to throw himself into power punches. This movement will be critical to bewilder Covington so he can avoid takedowns.

Buckley’s previous experience at middleweight, dealing with bigger and stronger opposition at 185, may also help him in any wrestling exchanges Covington attempts to impose on him.

Covington’s pace and cardio was one of the best in the history of MMA in his prime and although he was unable to utilise this weapon in his last fight, Buckley must pace himself and perhaps tighten up those hooks a little bit to conserve energy, so he does not get overwhelmed in the later rounds if a dangerous version of Covington shows up.

That’s a big ‘if’ surrounding Covington, and Buckley has been screaming from the rooftops that he wants a high-profile name in a main event - now is his chance to make a statement and potentially retire Colby Covington.

Fighter Prediction: Joaquin Buckley

Method: KO/TKO

Round: 2

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