Newcastle vs Brentford analysis: Five key battles and score prediction

Newcastle United return to action for the first time since that historic Carabao Cup final victory two and a half weeks ago as they face Brentford in the Premier League on Wednesday night.

First-choice left-back Lewis Hall and fellow defender Sven Botman are still missing through injury, while star winger Anthony Gordon will have to watch from the sidelines again as he serves the last of his three-match suspension.

Brentford come into the game unbeaten in their last five Premier League away matches and the Bees will be looking to move within three points of the European places.

Sports News Blitz writer Dylan Richardson assesses the five key battles on the pitch that could be decisive of victory at St James’ Park.

Bruno Guimaraes vs Christian Norgaard

Bruno Guimaraes has played in a more advanced role for large amounts of this season, with the 27-year-old being the Magpies’ primary creator from the midfield.

Brentford captain Christian Norgaard has recently signed a new contract with the Bees until 2027, showing his importance in the heart of Thomas Frank’s midfield.

The 31-year-old Danish international will no doubt be the player responsible for trying to limit Guimaraes’ creative quality.

This season, the Brazilian has averaged 0.84 successful through balls per 90 minutes, ranking in the top one percent of midfielders in Europe in this metric.

The Newcastle captain also makes on average 7.41 progressive passes per game, putting himself once again in the top 10% of midfielders.

The key for Brentford could be the defensive contribution of Norgaard, who has averaged a healthy 1.4 interceptions and 2.4 tackles per game this season.

Norgaard also has a strong number of ball recoveries every 90 minutes, coming in at 6.3.

Alexander Isak vs Nathan Collins

It takes a lot to stop Newcastle’s top scorer, who has established himself as one of the best strikers in the world over the last two seasons, with the 25-year-old seemingly having very few weaknesses to his game.

With 10 games left to play in the Premier League for the Magpies, Isak looks well on track to beat last season’s goal tally of 25, as well as record his highest single season assist total.

The Sweden international is in the top 10% of forwards in Europe in take-on success rate (50.1%), key passes per game (1.4) and shots on target percentage (47), making him almost unstoppable for defenders.

However, from a Bees perspective the key to stopping Isak could be exploiting one of his only weaknesses, winning aerial duels.

For Brentford, 23-year-old Collins excels in this area, winning 64% of his battles in the air compared to Isak who wins just 33%, so stopping service to the Swede’s feet could be the key to slowing him down.

On the other hand, Collins has the occasional mistake in him, losing possession 8.1 times a game this season, making him a potential target for the press of the Magpies.

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Joelinton vs Mikkel Damsgaard

This is the battle of two players that have revived their careers in recent years after dropping back into a midfield role.

Joelinton has established himself as one of the best box-to-box midfielders in the Premier League since the arrival of manager Eddie Howe in 2021, while Damsgaard has arguably been the most improved player in the division this season, sitting joint second on the assist chart this season.

The 24-year-old has averaged 1.8 key passes per game in the last year, along with being in the top five percent of midfielders in Europe when it comes to passes into the opposition box, at 2.05 per 90.

The Danish international is also a great dribbler, having a successful take-on rate of 51.7% this season at a high volume.

Being Newcastle’s most disruptive midfielder, Joelinton will likely be instructed to mark Damsgaard, with the 29-year-old having an above average, winning the ball off dribblers an above average 54% of the time, making him the key to slowing down the Brentford midfielder.

The Brazilian also averages just under one interception per game so could help prevent the ball from even getting to Damsgaard.

Tino Livramento vs Bryan Mbeumo

Livramento was one of the key performers in the Carabao Cup final, doing a brilliant job up against Mo Salah despite being on his unnatural left-hand side.

The key reason for this was his 1v1 defending up against the Egyptian. This was not just a one off, with Livramento being an excellent defender, boasting an impressive 58.1% of dribblers tackled.

While Mbeumo has a slightly better take-on success rate than Salah, it is still at a below average rate of 45.1% so the Cameroon international will need to come up with other ways to get the better of Livramento.

It is safe to say that the Bees winger best operates attacking with pace on the counter-attack, but Livramento could also play a big role in limiting the quick breaks, averaging 5.1 ball recoveries and 1.6 tackles per 90 minutes.

The 22-year-old full-back will also have to stop Mbeumo cutting in on his left foot, with most of his goals coming from stronger foot inside the box, so forcing him outside on his right foot could stop the winger completely.

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Jacob Murphy vs Keane Lewis-Potter

Brentford have had a bit of an injury crisis in defence once again this season, with the left-back spot being the most impacted.

Since tearing his ACL in this fixture at the beginning of last season, Rico Henry has played just 70 minutes of senior football, 63 in the FA Cup against Plymouth and seven against Manchester City off the bench in the Premier League, before getting injured again.

Aaron Hickey last played in October 2023 and with no return date set for the 22-year-old, it looks like this season’s makeshift left-back Keane Lewis-Potter will likely be selected again.

While he has exceeded expectations in defence this season, the 24-year-old has only averaged 0.8 successful tackles and 0.55 interceptions per game this season, ranking in the bottom 10% of full-backs for those metrics.

Jacob Murphy has been a surprise package for the Magpies this season, registering eight assists in the Premier League so far, and though Lewis-Potter does have an impressive 61% tackle success rate, it is hard to say that the Newcastle winger could get himself involved and leave a positive mark on the game.

Score prediction: Newcastle 3-1 Brentford

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